Childcare in Crisis: YMCA Warns Workforce Shortage Threatens Government Childcare Expansion Promises

Top Lines: Key Findings from the Report

• Level 3 qualifications – vital for meeting staff-to-child ratios – have fallen 28% since 2018/19, undermining workforce readiness.
• The Department for Education predicts 40,000 more staff are needed by September 2025 – a figure current training pipelines will not meet.
• In 2024 alone, 19,200 childcare roles remained unfilled, despite national recruitment campaigns.
• University degree achievements in early years have dropped 33% since 2019/20, with enrolments at their lowest in a decade.
• Many providers, including YMCA settings, are increasingly reliant on agency staff, many without the qualifications needed to meet legal ratios.

New report reveals drastic fall in early years qualifications as childcare demand set to surge.

National youth charity, YMCA, has today issued a stark warning that the Government’s ‘flagship’ childcare expansion is at risk unless urgent action is taken to address the national shortage of qualified early years staff.

In a new report, Training for the Future: Qualifications in Early Years Education, YMCA outlines how falling qualification levels, increased demand, and slow recruitment are converging to create a crisis point for the sector.

From September 2025, children aged 9 months to 2 years will be entitled to 30 funded hours of childcare per week – a transformative policy, first announced   in March 2023, intended to support working families and improve early childhood outcomes.

However, the success of this policy is fundamentally dependent on the availability of skilled, qualified early years professionals. Without this foundation, settings will struggle to operate safely, affordably, or legally, leaving families without the support they have  been promised.

Denise Hatton, Chief Executive of YMCA England & Wales, said:

“Every child deserves the best possible start in life – but without enough qualified staff, the expansion of funded childcare risks becoming an unkept promise.

We urgently need sustainable investment, affordable training pathways, and real support for recruitment and retention in early years. Families across the country are counting on it.”

YMCA works with over 6,500 children annually in 63 childcare settings, often in communities with high deprivation and complex needs. These children and their families stand to benefit most from expanded childcare access, but only if the sector is ready.

This is a moment of truth for the early years sector. If the Government fails to act swiftly and decisively, thousands of children could be denied the opportunity to thrive, and parents may find that the very childcare they were promised doesn’t exist. The funded hours policy is bold and ambitious, but without a qualified workforce behind it, it risks failure. Immediate action needs to be taken now to train, attract and retain the educators who will deliver on this promise.

Findings from the Report:

Qualifications are in decline:

• Level 3 achievements, which are required to meet staff-to-child ratio requirements, have decreased by 28% since 2018/19.
• University degrees in early years education have plummeted 33% since 2019/20.
• Enrolments in early years degree programmes are at their lowest in a decade.

Workforce shortages loom large:

• The Department for Education estimates that 40,000 additional staff will be needed by September 2025.
• In 2024, 19,200 roles remained unfilled, despite a 6% increase in staffing overall.
• Recruitment remains challenging, especially in low-income communities served by YMCAs.

Recruitment isn’t matching demand:

• Many have struggled for more than a year to recruit qualified staff across its settings.
• Providers are increasingly relying on agency staff, many of whom lack Level 3 qualifications, to meet staffing ratios.

Future projections are worrying:

• Although Level 3 apprenticeship numbers are predicted to grow 33% by 2026/27, it won’t be enough to meet the 40,000 target.
• Changes, such as removing GCSE English and Maths requirements for apprenticeships, are positive but insufficient alone.

YMCA’s Recommendations to Government:

• Invest now: Ensure funding matches the true cost of delivering high-quality early years care and enables fair pay.
• Widen access to qualifications: Expand flexible, affordable pathways for adults and young people entering the sector.
• Support providers: Help early years settings retain experienced staff and provide professional development opportunities.
• Embed early years in national skills strategy: Include early years education in Skills England’s long-term planning.

Read the full report here.